{"id":142867,"date":"2022-11-29T12:12:06","date_gmt":"2022-11-29T12:12:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/skull-session-the-game-was-decided-by-five-plays-17-million-people-watched-ohio-state-play-michigan-and-the-buckeyes-can-still-make-the-cfp\/"},"modified":"2022-11-29T12:12:06","modified_gmt":"2022-11-29T12:12:06","slug":"skull-session-the-game-was-decided-by-five-plays-17-million-people-watched-ohio-state-play-michigan-and-the-buckeyes-can-still-make-the-cfp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/skull-session-the-game-was-decided-by-five-plays-17-million-people-watched-ohio-state-play-michigan-and-the-buckeyes-can-still-make-the-cfp\/","title":{"rendered":"Skull Session: The Game Was Decided by Five Plays, 17 Million People Watched Ohio State Play Michigan and the Buckeyes Can Still Make the CFP"},"content":{"rendered":"
Folks, it’s been more than 48 hours since The Game, and I am still puzzled about Ohio State’s performance on Saturday. <\/p>\n
\tI’m not sure I will ever understand it with certainty, but perhaps more time will do the trick. Time heals all wounds, after all.\n<\/p>\n
\tLet’s have a good Tuesday, shall we?\n<\/p>\n
\n\t <\/span>OVERREACTION MONDAY. <\/strong>I’m ready to admit that I overreacted in Monday’s Skull Session, especially in the headline and social media write-ups that Michigan dominated Ohio State in “every possible way” on Saturday.\n<\/p>\n \tThe truth is, only five plays made the difference between the Buckeyes and Wolverines in The Game this year. Care to guess which ones?\n<\/p>\n \tYou would be correct if you picked the five plays where Michigan scored touchdowns of 45 yards or more.\n<\/p>\n \taccording to Parker Flemming<\/a> (not the Ohio State special teams coach) of CFBGraphs, the Buckeyes allowed 360 yards on those five plays \u2013 three of which were passes and two were runs. The Wolverines averaged just over 3 yards per play on the rest of the ballgame. Because of that, Ohio State didn’t get beat that <\/em>badly, Flemming’s statistics show.\n<\/p>\n \n \t\tDid We Really Get Beat that Bad?<\/p>\n Net Success Rates Week 13<\/p>\n Colorado, Rutgers, Miami, Wyoming, Washington State, Northern Illinois, Baylor, Coastal Carolina, Arkansas State, Hawai’i, Texas State, Stanford, Bowling Green, and Auburn: y’all really did get beat that bad. pic.twitter.com\/VkVSuf6ZNq<\/a>\n\t<\/p>\n \t\u2014 parker, unverified (@statsowar) November 28, 2022<\/a>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n \n\tThe Power Rank’s Ed Fang<\/a> and later ESPN’s Bill Connelly<\/a> verified Flemming’s data with their own work, explaining that Michigan’s 37.9% offensive success rate \u2013 a metric that measures a team’s efficiency with down and distance \u2013 was almost 10 percentage points lower than Ohio State’s 47.4% offensive success rate.\n<\/p>\n \tIn other words, the Buckeyes outperformed the Wolverines on Saturday, but Michigan repeatedly capitalized on the big play.\n<\/p>\n \tStill, that’s a part of football. The Buckeyes failed to execute, and the Wolverines made them pay. While it’s not the butt-kicking I thought it was \u2013 and maybe blame that on my Monday Skull Session being written within 24 hours of The Game on Sunday \u2013 Michigan still won, and Ohio State fans have to live with that reality for another year.\n<\/p>\n \tHurt me.\n<\/p>\n \n\t <\/span>TOUGH LOOK. <\/strong>More than 17 million people tuned in to watch Ohio State lose to Michigan on Saturday, according to FOX, the station that broadcasted The Game via its Big Noon production.\n<\/p>\n \tHurt me even more.\n<\/p>\n \n \t\tThe Game made HISTORY this year with 17 million viewers @UMichFootball<\/a> x @OhioStateFB<\/a> | @FOXSportsPR<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/KDxV487u6s<\/a>\n\t<\/p>\n \t\u2014 FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 28, 2022<\/a>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n \tFOX Sports’ public relations team later provided context to the number of 17 million, adding that the viewership for the Buckeyes’ battle with the Wolverines attracted a peak viewership of nearly 20 million. Overall, The Game reeled in about 3% more eyeballs than the year before.\n<\/p>\n \n \t\t.@FOXSports<\/a>‘ record-breaking weekend continues!<\/p>\n Michigan-Ohio State was the most-watched regular season CFB game EVER on FOX with 17 million viewers<\/p>\n – Most-watched regular season CFB game on any net since 2011 \t\u2014 FOX Sports PR (@FOXSportsPR) November 27, 2022<\/a>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n \n\t <\/span>SO YOU’RE SAY’ THERE’S A CHANCE. <\/strong>A few times this season, I included ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor in the Skull Session to show what the computers over at the worldwide leader in sports thought about Ohio State’s chances to win the remaining games on its schedule in addition to the Buckeyes’ odds to reach the CFP.\n<\/p>\n \tToday, I include the predictor to show everyone the numbers that the computers spewed out this week after the regular season ended.\n<\/p>\n \tDespite Ohio State not playing for a Big Ten title because it lost to Michigan only days before these same percentages were released, the Allstate Playoff Predictor has the Buckeyes’ chances to make the CFP at 88%.\n<\/p>\n \tI know. It’s insane. But it’s what the graphic says:\n<\/p>\n \n \t\tThings are about to get interesting after a wild Rivalry Week pic.twitter.com\/yyjT5PQvme<\/a>\n\t<\/p>\n\n
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– Peaked at 19.6 million viewers
– Up +3% over 2021’s matchup on FOX pic.twitter.com\/DdZglhNJqP<\/a>\n\t<\/p>\n\n