{"id":168747,"date":"2022-12-26T11:58:16","date_gmt":"2022-12-26T11:58:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/christmas-box-office-looks-more-like-coal-than-a-gift\/"},"modified":"2022-12-26T11:58:16","modified_gmt":"2022-12-26T11:58:16","slug":"christmas-box-office-looks-more-like-coal-than-a-gift","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/christmas-box-office-looks-more-like-coal-than-a-gift\/","title":{"rendered":"Christmas Box Office Looks More Like Coal than a Gift"},"content":{"rendered":"

Though the results overall are bleak, the real test comes starting Sunday over the next 11 days. Things can only get better.<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
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Yes, the weather outside has been frightful in much of the US and Canada in the days leading up to Christmas. Fortunately, it’s Christmas Day when grosses usually perk up, with most areas returning to more standard December temps. Unfortunately, even if the box office revives, the packages delivered to theaters are more coal than diamonds.<\/p>\n

No doubt the challenging weather decreased attendance by more than a little, particularly Friday. But the good news is that when Christmas falls on a Sunday, that day is the best of the three-day weekend. And then the holiday Monday is even more significant. It would have been more catastrophic if the cold front had moved in two days later.<\/p>\n

\u201cAvatar: The Way of Water\u201d (Disney) was the relative bright spot among all titles. The three-day estimate is $56 million, down 58 percent from its opening, bringing its 10-day gross to $253,682,000. Worldwide, the total reached $855 million. The studio is guessing $82 million for four days.<\/p>\n

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Related<\/h3>\n<\/section>\n
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Related<\/h3>\n<\/section>\n

The domestic caveats include the weather but also, as has been the case from the start, the time commitment involved in a movie running 192 minutes. That’s three-and-a-half hours in the theater, plus travel. That’s a major commitment, especially when travel is more challenging and holiday activities conflict. It’s a key reason why what happens starting tomorrow and the rest of the run is likely to be comparatively better than for other franchise pre-Christmas releases.<\/p>\n

Still, Disney’s estimate that Sunday will only be 10 percent above Friday’s gross falls short of the Christmas Day increase other studios are expecting for their films. The last time Christmas fell on Sunday, \u201cRogue One\u201d (a bigger opening weekend than James Cameron’s movie) fell 59 percent. So the reality is that without the weather factor, the drop for \u201cThe Way of Water\u201d likely would have been 50 percent or less. And with a better-than-guessed Sunday, it could be closer.<\/p>\n

Reality check, though: In its first 10 days, \u201cThe Way of Water\u201d domestic gross is over $200 million under what \u201cSpider-Man: No Way Home\u201d brought in for the same time, which was 58 percent of its ultimate $805 million . That movie was almost certainly more front-loaded than \u201cThe Way of Water,\u201d but if its performance ahead has the same ratio, it would only reach $440 million. The industry consensus before this weekend was a more likely $525\u2013$550 million result. But the hoped-for bounce needs to start happening by tomorrow at the latest.<\/p>\n

Only three other studio titles opened for the holidays. Easily the best was \u201cPuss in Boots: The Last Wish\u201d (Universal) at No. 2 with $17,453,000 in five days. For the same extended period last year, \u201cSing 2\u201d took in $39 million. Again, as with other titles, the weather hurt.<\/p>\n