{"id":185630,"date":"2023-01-13T14:19:14","date_gmt":"2023-01-13T14:19:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/nfl-wild-card-round-playoff-picks-seahawks-jaguars-bills-and-more\/"},"modified":"2023-01-13T14:19:14","modified_gmt":"2023-01-13T14:19:14","slug":"nfl-wild-card-round-playoff-picks-seahawks-jaguars-bills-and-more","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/nfl-wild-card-round-playoff-picks-seahawks-jaguars-bills-and-more\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Wild-Card Round Playoff Picks: Seahawks, Jaguars, Bills, and More"},"content":{"rendered":"
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We made it! The NFL regular season is over, we no longer have to pay attention to irrelevant teams, and we can now turn our full attention to the playoffs.<\/p>\n

During wild-card weekend, we get three games with relatively large point spreads (more than a touchdown), and three that are projected to be close (a field goal or less). What surprises are in store? Which big underdog has the best chance to win? Who will be left standing in the divisional round? On to the picks!<\/p>\n

Lines are from FanDuel as of Thursday night. Stats are from TruMedia\/Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.<\/p>\n

Week 18 records:<\/strong> 9-7<\/p>\n

Season record: <\/strong>138-126-7<\/p>\n

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)<\/h3>\n

On paper, this game looks like a major mismatch. The Seahawks needed overtime to get past the Rams in Week 18 and then snuck into the playoffs thanks to the Lions beating the Packers on Sunday night. Seattle went 3-5 in its final eight games during the regular season. Of the Seahawks’ three losses by more than seven points this season, two came against the 49ers. The Seahawks scored just one offensive touchdown on 20 possessions in those two losses.<\/p>\n

The 49ers, meanwhile, finished the regular season on a 10-game win streak, and their plus-173 point differential was tops in the NFL. They have the league’s best defense, and the offense didn’t miss a beat when Jimmy Garoppolo went down and Brock Purdy replaced him. If we were to extend the 49ers’ performance with Purdy to the entire season, they would rank as the second-best offense in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per play, behind only the Chiefs. Purdy’s EPA per pass play has been nearly identical to Garoppolo’s.<\/p>\n

So what’s the case for the Seahawks? One, their coaching staff will be ready. Pete Carroll has the Seahawks in the playoffs for the 10th time in 13 seasons, and that’s with three different starting quarterbacks. They’ve never gone back-to-back seasons without making it during Carroll’s tenure. Carroll has proven people wrong all year, showing that Seattle could still be competitive without Russell Wilson. Expect the Seahawks to play loose and embrace the underdog role.<\/p>\n

Having said that, they’ll need to find a way to gain an edge and steal possessions and field position because it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which the Seahawks consistently move the ball against this Niners defense. I see two possibilities: One, Purdy turns the ball over. That hasn’t been an issue so far, but he’s still a rookie making his first playoff start. He’s got to make mistakes at some point (I think?). And two, special teams. The Seahawks finished the regular season fourth in special teams DVOA, while the 49ers were 15th.<\/p>\n

I think the 49ers win, but it looks likely that this is going to be a messy-weather game with rain falling in Santa Clara. Kyle Shanahan is generally conservative with his in-game decision making, and I think he could be a little cautious early on with Purdy. A 49ers blowout would not surprise me. They’re the far superior team. But I’m banking on the Seahawks’ feistiness to keep it relatively competitive.<\/p>\n

The pick: Seahawks (+9.5)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5)<\/h3>\n

During this week’s Extra Points Taken<\/em>, I had to take the Chargers to task for how they handled Week 18. They knew before kickoff that they had the fifth seed locked up, yet Brandon Staley decided to still play his starters deep into the game. Wide receiver Mike Williams a game back injury during the. He missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, and is questionable for Saturday’s game. Staley pointed to roster limitations as the reason why he played Williams, Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and others. It’s true that you can’t sit everyone. But it’s false that you can’t sit your most important players. Just look at what Brian Daboll did with the Giants in Week 18. It was just such an avoidable mistake that could end up costing the Chargers in a game that matters.<\/p>\n

There are reasons to be enamored with this Chargers team as a potential sleeper. First, Staley has shown he can produce impressive opponent-specific defensive game plans. Second, they have Herbert. But I just can’t get there with this team. They went 1-5 with a minus-48 point differential against playoff teams during the regular season. Given what we’ve seen this year\u2014both with the offensive scheme and some of Staley’s decision making\u2014I have questions about their ability to position Herbert for success.<\/p>\n

As for the Jaguars, their win over the Titans last week wasn’t all that impressive, but their body of work is pretty good. The Jaguars finished the regular season ninth in offensive DVOA and seventh overall in point differential. The job Doug Pederson did this season was underrated. The Jaguars had won more than six games just once in the previous 11 seasons! Pederson got them to 9-8 and won the division. Also, don’t sleep on Jacksonville’s crowd. I thought the fans there were terrific last week.<\/p>\n

There’s a chance I end up looking like a dummy for this pick. I’m a big believer in Herbert, and the Chargers are the more talented team. But the Jaguars have had the better season, they beat the Chargers 38-10 in Week 3, and I like Pederson and Trevor Lawrence in the underdog role.<\/p>\n

The pick: Jaguars (+2.5)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-13.5)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

I picked the Bills to win the Super Bowl before the season, but I will admit there have been a bunch of times this year where I’ve watched them and thought, \u201cThey don’t look quite right to me.\u201d Then I’d go to the numbers, which suggest they’re exactly the team a lot of people expected them to be. Some examples:<\/p>\n