{"id":185630,"date":"2023-01-13T14:19:14","date_gmt":"2023-01-13T14:19:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/nfl-wild-card-round-playoff-picks-seahawks-jaguars-bills-and-more\/"},"modified":"2023-01-13T14:19:14","modified_gmt":"2023-01-13T14:19:14","slug":"nfl-wild-card-round-playoff-picks-seahawks-jaguars-bills-and-more","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/nfl-wild-card-round-playoff-picks-seahawks-jaguars-bills-and-more\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Wild-Card Round Playoff Picks: Seahawks, Jaguars, Bills, and More"},"content":{"rendered":"
We made it! The NFL regular season is over, we no longer have to pay attention to irrelevant teams, and we can now turn our full attention to the playoffs.<\/p>\n
During wild-card weekend, we get three games with relatively large point spreads (more than a touchdown), and three that are projected to be close (a field goal or less). What surprises are in store? Which big underdog has the best chance to win? Who will be left standing in the divisional round? On to the picks!<\/p>\n
Lines are from FanDuel as of Thursday night. Stats are from TruMedia\/Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.<\/p>\n
Week 18 records:<\/strong> 9-7<\/p>\n Season record: <\/strong>138-126-7<\/p>\n On paper, this game looks like a major mismatch. The Seahawks needed overtime to get past the Rams in Week 18 and then snuck into the playoffs thanks to the Lions beating the Packers on Sunday night. Seattle went 3-5 in its final eight games during the regular season. Of the Seahawks’ three losses by more than seven points this season, two came against the 49ers. The Seahawks scored just one offensive touchdown on 20 possessions in those two losses.<\/p>\n The 49ers, meanwhile, finished the regular season on a 10-game win streak, and their plus-173 point differential was tops in the NFL. They have the league’s best defense, and the offense didn’t miss a beat when Jimmy Garoppolo went down and Brock Purdy replaced him. If we were to extend the 49ers’ performance with Purdy to the entire season, they would rank as the second-best offense in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per play, behind only the Chiefs. Purdy’s EPA per pass play has been nearly identical to Garoppolo’s.<\/p>\n So what’s the case for the Seahawks? One, their coaching staff will be ready. Pete Carroll has the Seahawks in the playoffs for the 10th time in 13 seasons, and that’s with three different starting quarterbacks. They’ve never gone back-to-back seasons without making it during Carroll’s tenure. Carroll has proven people wrong all year, showing that Seattle could still be competitive without Russell Wilson. Expect the Seahawks to play loose and embrace the underdog role.<\/p>\n Having said that, they’ll need to find a way to gain an edge and steal possessions and field position because it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which the Seahawks consistently move the ball against this Niners defense. I see two possibilities: One, Purdy turns the ball over. That hasn’t been an issue so far, but he’s still a rookie making his first playoff start. He’s got to make mistakes at some point (I think?). And two, special teams. The Seahawks finished the regular season fourth in special teams DVOA, while the 49ers were 15th.<\/p>\n I think the 49ers win, but it looks likely that this is going to be a messy-weather game with rain falling in Santa Clara. Kyle Shanahan is generally conservative with his in-game decision making, and I think he could be a little cautious early on with Purdy. A 49ers blowout would not surprise me. They’re the far superior team. But I’m banking on the Seahawks’ feistiness to keep it relatively competitive.<\/p>\n The pick: Seahawks (+9.5)<\/strong><\/p>\n During this week’s Extra Points Taken<\/em>, I had to take the Chargers to task for how they handled Week 18. They knew before kickoff that they had the fifth seed locked up, yet Brandon Staley decided to still play his starters deep into the game. Wide receiver Mike Williams a game back injury during the. He missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, and is questionable for Saturday’s game. Staley pointed to roster limitations as the reason why he played Williams, Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and others. It’s true that you can’t sit everyone. But it’s false that you can’t sit your most important players. Just look at what Brian Daboll did with the Giants in Week 18. It was just such an avoidable mistake that could end up costing the Chargers in a game that matters.<\/p>\n There are reasons to be enamored with this Chargers team as a potential sleeper. First, Staley has shown he can produce impressive opponent-specific defensive game plans. Second, they have Herbert. But I just can’t get there with this team. They went 1-5 with a minus-48 point differential against playoff teams during the regular season. Given what we’ve seen this year\u2014both with the offensive scheme and some of Staley’s decision making\u2014I have questions about their ability to position Herbert for success.<\/p>\n As for the Jaguars, their win over the Titans last week wasn’t all that impressive, but their body of work is pretty good. The Jaguars finished the regular season ninth in offensive DVOA and seventh overall in point differential. The job Doug Pederson did this season was underrated. The Jaguars had won more than six games just once in the previous 11 seasons! Pederson got them to 9-8 and won the division. Also, don’t sleep on Jacksonville’s crowd. I thought the fans there were terrific last week.<\/p>\n There’s a chance I end up looking like a dummy for this pick. I’m a big believer in Herbert, and the Chargers are the more talented team. But the Jaguars have had the better season, they beat the Chargers 38-10 in Week 3, and I like Pederson and Trevor Lawrence in the underdog role.<\/p>\n The pick: Jaguars (+2.5)<\/strong><\/p>\n I picked the Bills to win the Super Bowl before the season, but I will admit there have been a bunch of times this year where I’ve watched them and thought, \u201cThey don’t look quite right to me.\u201d Then I’d go to the numbers, which suggest they’re exactly the team a lot of people expected them to be. Some examples:<\/p>\n The Bills are not perfect. No team is. I wish their offensive line was a little better. I wish they had more weapons besides Stefon Diggs. I wish they were a little more stable at cornerback. I wish Von Miller didn’t get injured. But you know what? They’re still really, really good. Josh Allen’s A-plus game is as good as any quarterback in the NFL. And when Allen makes mistakes, he usually finds a way to make up for them.<\/p>\n When these two teams last faced each other in Week 15, the Bills produced 446 yards of offense and 29 first downs on a cold and snowy night. I don’t think Miami’s defense is good enough to stop Buffalo. And offensively, it looks like the Dolphins are preparing to roll with Skylar Thompson at quarterback.<\/p>\n I usually hate going with a side that it feels like everyone’s going to be on. There’s a scenario in which the Bills turn the ball over, and the Dolphins stay within striking distance. But Buffalo generally plays with an aggressive, \u201cstep on their throat\u201d mentality. That stadium’s going to be electric. I like the Bills in a blowout.<\/p>\n The pick: Bills (-13.5)<\/strong><\/p>\n When I first saw the schedule for this weekend, I looked at this game and knew I was going to hate myself regardless of which team I picked.<\/p>\n In one corner, we have the New York Giants\u2014a plucky, well-coached team that found a way to win games despite being short on talent. There are two specific matchups that I like here for the Giants. One is their pass rush against the Vikings offensive line, especially when you consider that Minnesota is dealing with injuries at center and right tackle. The other is the Giants’ offensive scheming against Minnesota’s defensive scheming. The Giants, almost miraculously, finished 10th in offensive DVOA in the regular season. They found a way to do more with less. The Vikings finished 27th in defensive DVOA. They were one of the easiest groups to move the ball against all season. The Giants put up 445 yards on the Vikings when the teams faced each other in Week 16.<\/p>\n The Vikings, meanwhile, are the only team since at least 2000 to finish with 13 or more wins and a negative (minus-3) point differential. No other team with 13 or more wins during that stretch finished worse than a plus-63. They’re banged up on the offensive line. Their defense isn’t very good. And they finished 30th in special teams DVOA. Then again, they have Justin Jefferson, who is the only player capable of just taking this game over.<\/p>\n These teams are pretty evenly matched. Just because the Vikings had luck on their side for most of the season doesn’t mean it’s necessarily going to continue or revert in this game. I’m going to go ahead and take the points, knowing full well that come Sunday evening there’s a strong possibility that I’m kicking myself for not having the foresight to predict a one-score, last-minute Vikings win.<\/p>\nSeattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)<\/h3>\n
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5)<\/h3>\n
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-13.5)<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3)<\/h3>\n