{"id":35247,"date":"2022-06-03T16:55:10","date_gmt":"2022-06-03T16:55:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/preview-may-non-farm-payrolls-by-the-numbers\/"},"modified":"2022-06-03T16:55:10","modified_gmt":"2022-06-03T16:55:10","slug":"preview-may-non-farm-payrolls-by-the-numbers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/preview-may-non-farm-payrolls-by-the-numbers\/","title":{"rendered":"Preview: May non-farm payrolls by the numbers"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"\">\n<figure class=\"content-data__image\" style=\"width:766px;\" data-v-4573bc2e=\"\">\n<p>     <\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<ul data-v-4573bc2e=\"\">\n<li data-v-4573bc2e=\"\">Consensus estimate + 325K<\/li>\n<li data-v-4573bc2e=\"\">Private + 325K<\/li>\n<li data-v-4573bc2e=\"\">April + 428K<\/li>\n<li data-v-4573bc2e=\"\">Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 3.5% vs 3.6% prior<\/li>\n<li data-v-4573bc2e=\"\">Participation rate consensus 62.2% prior<\/li>\n<li data-v-4573bc2e=\"\">Prior underemployment U6 prior 7.0%<\/li>\n<li data-v-4573bc2e=\"\">Avg hourly earnings y \/ y exp + 5.2% y \/ y vs + 5.5% prior<\/li>\n<li data-v-4573bc2e=\"\">Avg hourly earnings m \/ m exp + 0.4% vs + 0.3% prior<\/li>\n<li data-v-4573bc2e=\"\">Avg weekly hours exp 34.6 vs 34.6 prior<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-v-4573bc2e=\"\">Here&#8217;s the May jobs story so far:<\/p>\n<ul data-v-4573bc2e=\"\">\n<li data-v-4573bc2e=\"\">ADP + 128K vs + 300K expected <\/li>\n<li data-v-4573bc2e=\"\">ISM services employment not yet released<\/li>\n<li data-v-4573bc2e=\"\">ISM manufacturing employment 49.6 vs 50.9 prior<\/li>\n<li data-v-4573bc2e=\"\">Philly employment 25.5 vs 41.4 prior<\/li>\n<li data-v-4573bc2e=\"\">Empire employment 14.0 vs 7.3 prior<\/li>\n<li data-v-4573bc2e=\"\">Initial jobless claims survey week 195K vs 197K exp<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-v-4573bc2e=\"\">I don&#8217;t see this as a particularly important report.  A 50 bps hike from the Federal Reserve is baked in and there&#8217;s no reasonable number here that could change that.  Average hourly earnings is the detail to watch because a sharp rise in that beyond the 5.2% y \/ y expected could jar the Fed into a more-hawkish stance.  We got a hint of that Wednesday from Daly as the talk about going beyond neutral if necessary ramps up.<\/p>\n<div data-ref=\"banner\" class=\"banner__outer-wrapper article__automated-link-banner\" data-v-4573bc2e=\"\"><span class=\"banner__info hide-on-tablet hide-on-desktop-sm hide-on-left-and-right-banners-hidden hide-on-right-banner-hidden hide-on-desktop-md hide-on-desktop-lg hide-on-desktop-full-hd\">ADVERTISEMENT &#8211; CONTINUE READING BELOW<\/span> <\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Consensus estimate + 325K Private + 325K April + 428K Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 3.5% vs 3.6% prior Participation rate consensus 62.2% prior Prior underemployment U6 prior 7.0% Avg hourly earnings y \/ y exp + 5.2% y \/ y vs + 5.5% prior Avg hourly earnings m \/ m exp + 0.4% vs + &hellip;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"> <a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/preview-may-non-farm-payrolls-by-the-numbers\/\"> <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Preview: May non-farm payrolls by the numbers<\/span> Read More &raquo;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.forexlive.com\/images\/nonfarm%20payrolls%20April%202022%20chart_id_a1fcb323-07af-4d85-8bb0-f194af142c59_size900.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35247"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35247"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35247\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35247"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35247"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35247"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}