{"id":39339,"date":"2022-06-06T19:59:43","date_gmt":"2022-06-06T19:59:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/is-a-recession-coming-heres-what-ceos-and-economists-are-saying\/"},"modified":"2022-06-06T19:59:43","modified_gmt":"2022-06-06T19:59:43","slug":"is-a-recession-coming-heres-what-ceos-and-economists-are-saying","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/is-a-recession-coming-heres-what-ceos-and-economists-are-saying\/","title":{"rendered":"Is a recession coming? Here’s what CEOs and economists are saying."},"content":{"rendered":"
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With inflation at its highest level in decades, the stock market tumbling, and the war in Ukraine driving fears of a prolonged downturn, corporate leaders are talking more about the likelihood of a recession, typically defined as an economic contraction that lasts at least six months .<\/span><\/p>\n

Last week, JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon predicted an economic \u201churricane\u201d stemming from inflation, the Ukraine war, and the Federal Reserve’s steps to hike interest rates and shrink its bond portfolio.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cRight now it’s kind of sunny, things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this, \u201dDimon said last Wednesday at a Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference. \u201cThat hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way. We just don’t know if it’s a minor one or Superstorm Sandy. “<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Dimon told investors to brace themselves for market volatility, adding that JPMorgan “is bracing ourselves, and we’re going to be very conservative with our balance sheet.” In early May, Dimon said there was a 66 percent chance the US would enter a recession.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Other Wall Street executives are delivering similar predictions. PNC Financial Services chief executive Bill Demchak said Thursday that while he doesn’t see a “hurricane” on the horizon, he also doesn’t “see any possible outcome other than a recession.” Goldman Sachs COO John Waldron expects “tougher economic times ahead.”<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThis is among – if not the most – complex, dynamic environments I’ve ever seen in my career,\u201d said Waldron. “The confluence of the number of shocks to the system to me is unprecedented.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Tesla CEO Elon Musk joined the chorus, saying in an e-mail to his executives that he has a \u201csuper bad feeling\u201d about the economy and that the company would need to cut roughly 10 percent of its workforce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Carlyle Group CEO Kewsong Lee has a slightly more optimistic outlook on the likelihood of a recession, saying the global private equity firm has its \u201ceyes wide open\u201d as it navigates the threat of recession.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cRight now our stance is more defensive than not – I think appropriately so,\u201d said Lee at the Bernstein conference. \u201cAnd as we look at this portfolio day-to-day, we don’t see anything which is giving us huge concern. That’s not to say we’re not eyes wide open. Of course we are. But as we sit here today, we’re not seeing any huge problems. “<\/span><\/p>\n

Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf told a Wall Street Journal conference audience last month that \u201cIt’s going to be hard to avoid some kind of recession\u201d as the Federal Reserve attempts to drive down inflation without tipping the economy into a recession. But a strong labor market and high consumer demand could soften the blow of a future downturn.<\/span><\/p>\n

“Everyone is so strong going into this, [which] should hopefully provide a cushion so that whatever recession there is, if there is one, is short and not all that deep, \u201dsaid Scharf.<\/span><\/p>\n

But the combination of stagnant economic growth and high inflation – known as stagflation – seems likely to persist \u201cfor at least the next 12 months,\u201d said Simon Baptist, global chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, during an appearance on CNBC. And a Bloomberg survey of economists conducted in May found that the probability of a recession in the next year sits at 30 percent, the highest since 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n

In a mid-May appearance on CBS’s \u201cFace the Nation,\u201d former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein said that there is a \u201cvery, very high risk\u201d of a recession.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIf I were running a big company, I would be very prepared for it,\u201d said Blankfein. “If I was a consumer, I’d be prepared for it.”<\/span><\/p>\n

And Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, a financial markets research company, told the Globe last month that “everything points to an economy that’s near the tipping point.”<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt’ll be a miracle if we can avoid a recession,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Annie Probert can be reached at annie.probert@globe.com.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With inflation at its highest level in decades, the stock market tumbling, and the war in Ukraine driving fears of a prolonged downturn, corporate leaders are talking more about the likelihood of a recession, typically defined as an economic contraction that lasts at least six months . Last week, JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon …<\/p>\n

Is a recession coming? Here’s what CEOs and economists are saying.<\/span> Read More »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/bostonglobe-prod.cdn.arcpublishing.com\/resizer\/Lo1ZO_WYVkuwHEzYWSyTWSArvXE=\/506x0\/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com\/bostonglobe\/ANCB4ZNMZ2KB6HN3QP7I7KS7NA.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39339"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39339"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39339\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39339"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39339"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39339"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}