{"id":70030,"date":"2022-09-08T17:38:00","date_gmt":"2022-09-08T17:38:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/usage-and-expected-value-for-four-key-players-in-week-1\/"},"modified":"2022-09-08T17:38:00","modified_gmt":"2022-09-08T17:38:00","slug":"usage-and-expected-value-for-four-key-players-in-week-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harchi90.com\/usage-and-expected-value-for-four-key-players-in-week-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Usage and expected value for four key players in Week 1"},"content":{"rendered":"
Welcome to week 1, fantasy managers! I’m ecstatic to share a new weekly series focused on leveraging my Expected Fantasy Points<\/strong> model to assess each player’s value based on their usage from the previous week(s). To arrive at this metric, my model will utilize historical play-by-play data to calculate each player’s expected fantasy value based on the down, distance to the goal and yard line of their opportunities.<\/p>\n [<\/em><\/strong>It’s fantasy football season: Create or join a league now!<\/em><\/strong>]<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n Naturally, the type<\/em> of opportunity will also affect the expected value. Targets, for example, are significantly more valuable than rush attempts, especially for running backs. On the other hand, rushing opportunities are more valuable than pass attempts, giving dual-threat quarterbacks the edge for fantasy. My model will take all of this into account to arrive at the following metrics each week:<\/p>\n As an example, let us take a look at Austin Ekler<\/strong>‘s usage from last season. With heavy involvement in the passing game (15 target share) and the red zone, Ekeler’s value came in at 17.7 Expected PPR points per game (RB3)<\/strong>behind only Derrick Henry<\/strong> and Jonathan Taylor<\/strong>. His actual production was 21.5 PPR points per game, meaning Ekeler was both extremely efficient and exceeded his expected value. That gets us to the following numbers (per game):<\/p>\n Expected Fantasy Value: 17.7xFP<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n Actual Fantasy Production: 21.5 PPR<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n Fantasy Points Above Expected: +3.8 FPOE<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n You might be wondering, why do these metrics matter?<\/p>\n First off, Expected Points is rooted in volume, which can be a strong signal for future fantasy success. We want to identify players who are used heavily, even if it doesn’t immediately translate into top-12 production. Fantasy Points Above Expected signals efficiency and is much less stable. While a player might finish with +5.0 points above expected one week after scoring a 50-yard touchdown, their FPOE could swing in the other direction if they fail to replicate that efficiency the following week.<\/p>\n\n