The College Football Playoff field seems set — if the committee keeps the same energy — and so do the matchups for New Year’s Eve: Georgia vs. Ohio State in the Peach Bowl; Michigan vs. TCU in the Fiesta Bowl.
no. 4 USC’s 47-24 loss to Utah in the Pac-12 championship game Friday night opened the No. 4 spot in the final CFP rankings, which will be announced Sunday at noon on ESPN. Ohio State (11-1) should have the inside track, as it was ranked No. 5 in Tuesday’s rankings, with Alabama No. 6. Neither played this weekend, and watched the Trojans suffer a second loss to the Utes on the season.
no. 3 TCU had its undefeated season come to an end Saturday in overtime vs. no. 10 Kansas State, 31-28, in the Big 12 championship game, but 12-1 TCU should not be left out of the CFP and jumped by both idle one-loss Ohio State or two-loss Alabama − again, neither even played for a conference championship. Yes, the Crimson Tide lost close road games at Tennessee (52-49) and LSU (32-31 in OT), but that was their chance and they lost − twice. TCU defeated KSU earlier in the season and also won at No. 20 Texas, 17-10, three weeks ago. It also beat three other teams ranked inside the top 25 at the time of the game (Oklahoma, Kansas, Oklahoma State).
Alabama (10-2) also won at Texas, 20-19, in the second game of the season and has a win over No. 24 Mississippi State. But its resume, with two losses, is not any better than TCU’s.
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This leaves Georgia as the No. 1 team and Michigan likely No. 2. The defending national champion Bulldogs moved to 13-0 after dominating No. 14 LSU, 50-30, for the SEC championship on Saturday; the Wolverines battle four-loss Purdue for the Big Ten title (8 pm, Fox).
The committee will likely want to slot Michigan to avoid Ohio State in the semifinals − the rivals last week with Michigan dominating the second half in Columbus for a 45-23 win. It would be odd to make Michigan beat Ohio State again just for the right to play for the national championship − and last year, the committee avoided an Alabama-Georgia rematch in the semis after they played in the SEC title game. Instead, if both Michigan and OSU win their respective games, then so be it, it will be a deserved rematch. But the committee will ostensibly prefer a new matchup, and that means Michigan vs. TCU in a 2-3 affair and Georgia vs. Ohio State in the 1-4. Whether Michigan at that point is No. 2 or No. 3 − perhaps it would dip below TCU if it got blasted by Purdue, but again, it has the best win of anyone: at Ohio State − won’t matter. And Ohio State should not jump TCU, since its resume boasts two good wins (vs. Notre Dame in the opener and at Penn State) and one big glaring home loss.
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The No. 1 seed gets to choose which bowl it prefers: Peach Bowl in Atlanta or Fiesta Bowl in Arizona. With Georgia solidifying the top seed, it will pick the Peach Bowl in its home state, sending Michigan to Glendale, Arizona.
Any questions?
good. Now, sit back, relax and enjoy the football.